CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Thu 29 Sep 06:00 - Fri 30 Sep 06:00 2005 (UTC)
ISSUED: 29 Sep 07:42 (UTC)
FORECASTER: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Well-developed trough over the North Sea moves eastward and tears off over northern Germany between blocking high over northeastern Europe and intense ridge building over western Europe. In the range of this trough/vort-max ... convectively mixed maritime airmass is expected to destabilize in response to diurnal heating, and showers and thunderstorms are forecast over northern Germany. DLS will be quite low as indicated by latest GFS model run ... and organized convection should be unlikely. Strong wind gusts should be the main threat. However ... rather strong LLS in the range of strong synoptic pressure gradient as well as low LCL heights may increase the chance for a few tornadoes. Allover threat should be low. Isolated thunderstorms are not ruled out over eastern Baltic Sea region ... where two short-wave troughs/vort-maxima travel northward. Affected airmass is characterized by quite rich low-level moisture ... and low-level CAPE may reach more than 50 J/kg. Although DLS is forecast to reach more than 20 m/s ... LLS should be weak and severe thunderstorms are not expected. To the south ... base of European trough will affect northern Adriatic region on Thursday. Models suggest that showers and thunderstorms will form over the warm water surface. DLS will be moderate reaching 20 m/s locally ... and a few mesocyclones are not ruled out ATTM. Large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado or two are not ruled out. However ... allover threat seems to be quite low ATTM ... and a SLGT seems to be not warrant.

DISCUSSION

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